Monday, September 27, 2010

Yankees win

The Yankees won last night putting them in a good position to make the playoffs as their magic number is now one. But not quite as good as their radio announcer, John Stirling, kept claiming. He repeatedly declared that the Yankees now have thirteen chances to clinch (as they have six games remaining and the Red Sox have seven and any Yankee win or Red Sox loss eliminates the Red Sox). But there is a rather obvious flaw in this argument. This isn't the first time I have noticed that careful analysis is not Stirling's strong suit. It can become annoying. As with his mantra invoked whenever something slightly unusual happens that "you can't predict baseball".

1 comment:

  1. I see. At the time of your posting they had 3 games remaining with Boston, so 13 becomes 13-3 or 10, giving a nominal 1/2000 chance of the Yankees not winning the pennant (which, when you factor in the morale effects of significant winning and losing streaks, would probably better be estimated at 1/500 or 1/250 or so).