Late Adopter

There are people who like to buy new products as soon they come on the market.  Then there are people like me on the trailing edge of the adoption curve.  Usually this isn't a problem but occasionally I have regrets that I didn't get on board sooner.  I recently had such regrets regarding digital thermometers.

Prior to this year I had not needed to take my temperature for a long time as I have been fortunate in having generally good health.  However this year because of COVID-19 I have needed to take my temperature many times (among other things my employer requires me to take my temperature before going to work every day).  When this started I looked around and discovered I had two thermometers (both of which I believe were gifts from my mother who properly worried that thermometers were the sort of thing that I would neglect getting for myself).  One was an old fashioned mercury thermometer probably about 35 years old (the instructions are copyright 1983).  The other was a digital thermometer probably about 20 years old give or take (I seem to have lost the instructions).  Unfortunately when I tried it the digital thermometer (a K-jump model 720 sold under the Today's Health brand) didn't work.  Probably because the battery had died over the many years of disuse.

That left the mercury thermometer.   I had some trouble with it too.  Mercury thermometers contain a reservoir of mercury at the base of a narrow glass tube with temperature scale markings.  When you take your temperature thermal expansion forces some of the mercury up the tube.  The higher your temperature the more thermal expansion forcing the mercury higher up into the tube allowing your temperature to be read off.  But the mercury doesn't return to the reservoir by itself even after it cools down.  The thermometer has to be "shaken down" which means shaking (or jerking) the thermometer in such a way as push the mercury back into the reservoir.  Apparently there is a knack to this as I was unable to do it.  Fortunately I figured out (or maybe read about on the internet) an alternative.  By placing the thermometer in its case, placing the case in a sock and rapidly spinning the sock I was able to force the mercury back into its reservoir. This allowed me to use the mercury thermometer.

Although capable of doing the job (of measuring your temperature) mercury thermometers have some drawbacks.  According to the instructions they need to be in your mouth for four minutes to obtain an accurate reading.  I am not sure this is really necessary but I didn't experiment with shorter times.  The shaking down process consumes some more time.  Mercury thermometers are also fragile and a real nuisance if they break because of the mercury.  While using the thermometer daily for several months I actually did drop it a few times but fortunately a short distance onto carpet so it didn't break.  Still breakage is a constant risk.

So eventually I decided to upgrade to a digital thermometer.  I could have tried replacing the battery in the one I had but new ones were cheap enough that this seemed the way to go.  I ended up buying a Vicks SpeedRead thermometer  (model V912BBUSV1) sold online by Walmart.  This was cheap (about $10) and had gotten good customer reviews.  I am quite satisfied with it after a few weeks of use.  The  easy to read display shows your temperature with a resolution of .1 degrees Fahrenheit (the mercury thermometer had similar resolution with scale markings .2 degrees Fahrenheit apart but it was a pain to  read).  I took my temperature with both a couple of times with good agreement (off .2 degrees one time, 0 degrees the other time).  The new digital thermometer is also much faster.  I seem to average around 10 seconds before it beeps announcing that it is ready to read.  This is a little slower than the advertised 8 second best case but better than the 15 second average case in the fine print.  In any case much better than four minutes (or even the 60 seconds claimed by the older model digital thermometer).   

 All in all in this case the new technology seems far superior and I regret not buying a digital thermometer months earlier (assuming I could have found one in stock, apparently they were in short supply for a while).  The main disadvantage of a digital thermometer seems to be that the battery can die.  I don't know if the model I bought will provide a reasonable advance warning that the battery is about to die (and this wouldn't help if the battery dies because of long disuse).  For this reason I plan to keep the mercury thermometer around as backup.  Consumer Reports recommends properly disposing (a bit of a pain in itself) of old mercury thermometers because of the breakage hazard but I don't think the risk is high while it is being stored in its case.

2020 Election

A few days ago I received a postcard from the Middlesex County Board of Elections thanking me for my vote in the 2020 general election. Unlike many people I didn't have a strong opinion about the race. So if New Jersey hadn't mailed me a ballot about 6 weeks before the election I might not have gotten around to voting. But as they did, I preserved my record of always voting in Presidential elections. I could have returned the ballot by mail but deposited it in a drop box a few days before the election instead. 

I rather reluctantly voted for Biden. Biden isn't a very inspiring candidate but I find him less objectionable than many of his fellow Democrats. And of course this election was largely about Trump. I voted for Trump in 2016 but four years of exposure to his many flaws including his indifference to objective reality was ultimately too much for me to support him again however much I dislike many of his opponents. Trump's post election behavior after his defeat has just made me feel better about my decision. 

I was pleased that the Republicans did well down ballot. I have no love for the Democratic agenda and I am glad that many of the more objectional parts now appear to have little chance of making it through Congress even if the Democrats manage to eke out control of Senate by winning both Georgia runoffs. 

There has been some talk that there was something surprising about the Republicans doing better than expected in the down ballot races even though Trump lost but it doesn't seem so to me. The Republicans outperformed the polls by a few points. This wasn't enough to change the outcome of the Presidential race (after a few anxious moments for the Democrats) but it was enough to make a difference in a lot of the other races.

Budget Host Liberty Inn

In the early 90s while driving on I80 in eastern Iowa I spent a night in a motel near an exit. These days when driving long distances (which I do a fair amount of because I am afraid of flying) I generally make reservations for intermediate stops over the internet before starting out. However at that time I would just drive until I was ready to stop and then start looking for a place to spend the night. This usually worked out okay. In this case as I recall the motel had a sign near the exit offering some sort of cross promotion (something like 10% off your room rate if you bought a tank of gas, that sort of thing) with a nearby gas station and/or restaurant.

In later years I drove on that section of I80 a number of times and with nothing better to do started trying to pick out the location where I had once spent the night. But although I knew the approximate location (a couple of hours east of Des Moines) I was never able to confidently identify the exit. Eventually this annoyed me enough that when I got home I found the old motel receipt (I am a packrat type with a house full of useless stuff like that). This told me that the motel was the "Budget Host Liberty Inn" and that the exit was number 259. Armed with this information the next time I drove by on I80 I was of course able to locate the exit. I saw there was an Econo Lodge motel nearby but it and the site in general still didn't seem familiar. Of course driving by at 70 mph an hour doesn't give much time for a close inspection. And then I moved from Ossining to Princeton and stopped driving on that section of interstate highway. Recently while on Covid lockdown I looked on the internet for more information about the place and was able to find some.

The 35 room motel was built in 1966. At some point it became part of the Econo Lodge chain (motels move from one chain to another a fair amount). It operated as an Econo Lodge until about 2015 and then as an independent motel (named "Elegant Inn") until about 2018. It appears the building may now be in use as a warehouse for a company that sells vintage motorcycle parts. In 2015 somebody (perhaps on behalf of the owner in preparation for a sale) took some fancy 360 degree pictures of the Econo Lodge entry, front desk, breakfast area and two rooms which can be found on google maps. It all looks pretty nice but the extant reviews (from 2010-2015) are a mix of "okay for a cheap motel" and "not okay even for a cheap motel". I only found bad reviews for the "Elegant Inn".

There is an adjacent gas station/truck stop and convenience store that dates to 1964 with some alterations in the early 90s. There is also a restaurant building (built in the early 90s) on this property (which is currently distinct from the motel property). It appears the restaurant building has not been in use for at least 10 years. The changes on this property were made soon after I stayed in the motel and may partially explain why I was unable to recognize the exit. Also available pictures of the Econo Lodge incantation of the motel show some superficial alterations were made to the facade at some point (perhaps when it joined the Econo Lodge chain). Together with a garish paint job this would be enough to significantly change the motel's appearance again making it harder to recogize. And of course memory is unreliable, I have stayed in many cheap motels over the years and may over time start conflating details.

If you drive a lot you see a fair number of abandoned businesses like gas stations, motels and restaurants along interstate highways. This always seems a little sad to me. In this case the motel property (which includes 4 acres of land) sold for $695,000 in 1996 which indicates (unless the buyer grossly overpaid) that it was doing well at that time although the building was already 30 years old. At a cap rate of 10% this implies operating income of $69,500 a year or a bit over $5 per room per night (or perhaps $10 per occupied room per night). This seems pretty good but apparently it didn't last. Perhaps the building started showing its age. And the failure of the restaurant wouldn't have helped. In any case the motel sold in 2007 for $388,000 and again in 2018 for $170,000 and now is not worth operating as a motel. As noted the restaurant failed some time ago. The gas station/truck stop is still operating (albeit currently for sale) but you have to wonder about its future long term.

So what went wrong here? My guess is that for whatever reason this exit failed to amass the critical mass of businesses needed to make a location sufficiently attractive to passing drivers to survive long term. Perhaps somewhat counter-intuitively businesses along an interstate are better off clumping together (at least up to a point) than spreading themselves out evenly. This is easier to see in cases of complementary businesses like gas stations, restaurants and motels as each will draw business to the others. It is clearly better to have a gas station, restaurant and motel all at one exit than spread out one each at three adjacent exits. But even competitive businesses like gas stations are better off clumping together. This is because an exit with two or more gas stations is a more attractive place to buy gas than an exit with a single station as travelers will expect a better price. And two gas stations may draw enough traffic to support a restaurant (where a single station would not) which in turn will draw more business to the gas stations. As this process continues some exits will lose out unable to compete with nearby exits with more businesses bringing in a greater volume of traffic.

Of course this process has limits. If you get too big a gap between gas stations, restaurants or motels it becomes attractive to open a new location near the midpoint. But you don't really need gas stations (or restaurants or motels) every 5 miles along a rural interstate.

Atlantic View Motel

The picture is of the Atlantic View Motel in Hatteras, North Carolina. I took it shortly before sunset (which would have been around 5 PM) in late December of 1995 during the most recent of at least two times that I stayed at the motel while vacationing in the Outer Banks. On a couple of later trips (in 2000 and 2009) I didn't see the place and wondered vaguely what had become of it. While cooped up on covid-19 lockdown this summer I did some internet research on the subject. This proved to be a little a challenging as while it may seem like everything you could possibly want to know is on the internet these days this isn't really the case especially if you go just a little bit into the past. However I eventually figured out what had happened although it took me longer than it should have for a reason that will become apparent. Here is what I found out.

The Atlantic View Motel was built in 1977. It should not be confused with the nearby but much older (1928) Atlantic View Hotel (now called the Atlantic Inn). At some point the motel became the property (they don't appear to have been the orignal owners) of a couple named Peele who operated it until they sold it in 1999. I doubt the motel itself was a big money maker but the land it was on seems to have become quite valuable. This land appears to have been a strip about 200 feet wide and 1500 feet long between Route 12 and the Atlantic Ocean dune line. The motel was about 500 feet in from route 12 so didn't actually have much of an Atlantic view (although of course the ocean was just a short walk away).

After the property was sold a dead end road was built down the middle and the property was subdivided into building lots. This included 3 ocean front lots which appear to have been worth at least $400,000 each and about 9 also valuable oceanside lots. Somewhat to my surprise the motel building still exists (although considerably altered in appearance). It was converted into 8 condominium apartments.

The road is called "Atlantic View Drive", the subdivsion "Atlantic View Estates" and the condominiums "Atlantic View Villas" all of which should have been a clue that this was connected with the former Atlantic View Motel. However for some reason I wasn't expecting a new road and it wasn't until I found an old tourist map without the road that I realized what had happened.

2019 Portfolio Review

After slightly outperforming the market in 2018 my brokerage account under performed again in 2019. This time by almost 6%. Since the market as represented by VOO (Vanguard's S&P 500 index fund) was up 31.14% (28.72% capital gain, 2.42% income) my return of 25.28% (22.25% capital gain, 3.03% income) was still pretty good.

The biggest contributor to my under performance was the fact that my portfolio was not fully invested.  I started the year 12.31% in cash and after one stock purchase in October ended the year 12.23% in cash. In a very good year for the market this cash position (which only earned a bit over 2% in interest) was a substantial drag contributing 3.53% to my under performance. My individual stocks also lagged the market returning 26.09% (22.25% capital gain, 3.83% income) and contributing 1.52% to my under performance. As did my ETFs (besides VOO) returning 24.45% (20.55% capital gain, 3.90% income) and contributing .80% to my under performance.  This adds up to 5.85% of under performance in good agreement with the actual 5.86%.

Only two of my individual stocks outperformed by more than 10% (JPM, TGT).  The rest were either within 10% of the market return (ALL, BBL, BLK, ED, INTC, IBM, MET, NSC, UNH) or lagged the market by at least 10% (BNS, CM, CAT, CVS, XOM, PEG, SOUHY, TD, WFC, WBK).  One of my ETFs lagged the market by over 10% (VDE), the others lagged by less than 10% (VNQ, VPU, VYM).

As noted above I made one purchase during the year.  I bought some UNH (a health insurance company) on Columbus day.  This was good timing for once as UNH came out with a good earnings report and the stock performed well for the rest of the year. Hopefully it will do as well as my AET investment.

HP Notebook Breaks

Last summer I received as a gift a HP notebook computer (model 15-db0015dx). This is a low end machine but it was fine for web browsing and checking my email. However after about 6 months of normal use it developed a flaw in the upper left hand corner of the screen (which I am told is due to a crack in a internal glass sheet). Although the machine was theoretically still within the one year warranty period HP refused to fix it. Their position appears to be that any problem that could conceivably be due to customer abuse of the product isn't covered by the warranty. Which of course makes the warranty of little value as I not sure what if anything would be covered.

In my case the problem could easily have been due to a manufacturing defect, the machine could have been assembled slightly out of spec with the glass jammed into a position where it didn't quit fit and was under stress which eventually caused it to crack. Or the design could be inherently defective, unable to withstand normal use. According to internet sources some of the newer lightweight machines are so flimsy that just holding the display part by the top corner instead of the top center to open it can crack the screen. Which in my view is a defective design.

This has left me considerably annoyed with HP and I will be reluctant to buy their products in the future. I will also think twice about extremely lightweight designs. I bought a Dell Inspiron laptop about 10 years ago. While a little clunkier it has held up fine with similar use. 

Driver's License Renewal

Last Friday I went down to a MJ MVC office and got my driver's license renewed for another 4 years.  This wasn't too painful although at one point I did have to wait about half an hour for my number to be called. This was a longer wait than I remember from previous visits but perhaps the Friday before a 3 day weekend wasn't the best time to visit.

The way the process works is that you first go to a reception desk that tells you where to go next. In my case as I would have to present several forms of ID to get my license renewed I was first sent to a queue for several clerks who were checking that you had brought enough forms of ID to satisfy New Jersey's somewhat complicated requirements. This allows people who don't have the right ID to find out quickly. This line just took a few minutes. After the clerk checked my ID she gave me a sticker with a code (a letter followed by a number) on it and directed me to an area with chairs where I could wait for my code to be called.

The codes were being read out on a loudspeaker and also being flashed up on a bunch of video screens. When a code was called you were directed to a numbered window. Since I had nothing else to do I tried to figure out the system. It was a little complicated but eventually I deduced that there were multiple queues for the different services provided each with a different initial letter. The numbers (for each letter) were then being called in increasing order. I estimate there were about 4 clerks handling license renewal and about 12 people ahead of me. If each transaction took about 10 minutes this would account for about a 30 minute wait.

When my code was called and I went to my window and found a young woman trying to convince the clerk that she was next. The clerk was having none of it and eventually was able to turn her attention to me. I gave my IDs to the clerk and she checked them (with a slight scare when she momentarily misplaced my old driver's license).  I had to answer the same 3 questions on an electronic pad I had already answered on a written form that I had filled out (as directed) before going to the office. I had to sign my name on a different electronic pad (with another slight glitch when I tried to use the stylus for the first pad which doesn't work). At some point my picture was taken. You are offered the option to retake the picture if you don't like the first one which I declined (as in my experience the second one isn't going to be much different). Then I filled out a check to NJMVC and received my new license (which has a similar format to the old one) and my old license back with a hole punched in it.

As I was driving away I figured out what I think happened with the young woman. She initially missed her code when it was first called. When this happens after a few minutes they call the next code. At this point the young woman belatedly realized her code had been called but it was too late she had missed her slot. But instead of going back to the waiting area and waiting for her code to be called again in a few minutes (as I expect the clerk had told her to do) she had instead hovered around while the clerk served the next customer thinking she would be next. But that isn't how the system works, when the slot opened up again the system assigned the next code which was mine. When I was done I think she was still hovering around expecting to be next which still wasn't how the system works but I didn't wait around to see what happened. Ironically when I was waiting to be called I noticed a repeat code call right before mine which I expect was her code coming up again with a different clerk.  But as she was hovering around the first clerk's window instead of listening for her code it had done her no good.

I felt a little sorry for the young woman as she said she was missing work and seemed to be in a bit of a panic but on the other hand if you are in a hurry perhaps should you be paying attention so you don't miss your code.  And perhaps you shouldn't ignore instructions.